{"id":340,"date":"2023-07-31T09:03:52","date_gmt":"2023-07-30T23:03:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brucesheb.familyds.net\/wordpress\/?p=340"},"modified":"2023-07-31T09:03:52","modified_gmt":"2023-07-30T23:03:52","slug":"global-warming-threatens-collapse-of-atlantic-currents-this-century-new-study-finds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/brucesheb.familyds.net\/wordpress\/2023\/07\/31\/global-warming-threatens-collapse-of-atlantic-currents-this-century-new-study-finds\/","title":{"rendered":"Global warming threatens collapse of Atlantic currents this century, new study finds"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Source: ft.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shutdown of ocean flows would likely lead to more stormy winters and drier summers in Europe Other signs of global warming include high sea surface temperatures in temperate regions of the northern hemisphere, while sea ice around Antarctica is at an all-time low \u00a9 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Henrik Egede-Lassen <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ocean circulation in the north Atlantic is likely to collapse sooner than expected as a result of climate change, causing further upheaval in weather patterns around the globe, new peer-reviewed scientific analysis finds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest study of the currents or \u201cconveyor belt\u201d that carry warmer water upwards from the tropics concludes the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc) will shut down at some point between 2025 and 2095, with the 2050s most likely. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The University of Copenhagen researchers predicted the outcome with 95 per cent confidence in the paper published in the journal Nature Communications. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The findings by Copenhagen professors Peter Ditlevsen and Susanne Ditlevsen contrast with the view of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that Amoc is unlikely to collapse this century, and some scientists remain wary of departing from the IPCC\u2019s predictions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A collapse of Amoc, which includes the Gulf Stream stretching from Florida to north-western Europe, would produce pronounced cooling across the northern hemisphere, leading to stormier winters and drier summers in Europe. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conversely, heat would intensify further south, as less warmth is transferred to temperate and polar latitudes, and there would be large changes in tropical rainfall and monsoons. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is one of the most feared of the \u201ctipping points\u201d for the planet, or irreversible changes, that are threatened by global warming. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI was surprised we found that the tipping point would come so soon and that we could constrain its timing so strongly to the next 70 years,\u201d said Peter Ditlevsen. He said the IPCC models were \u201ctoo conservative\u201d and did not take into account early warning signals of instability reported more recently. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Stefan Rahmstorf, professor of ocean physics at Potsdam University and one of Europe\u2019s leading climate scientists, said the growing body of science around the world\u2019s ocean current systems showed a marked shift. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe findings are in line with a couple of other studies in recent years suggesting that the Amoc tipping point is perhaps much closer than we previously thought. The evidence is mounting and is in my view alarming.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tim Lenton, one of the world\u2019s foremost experts on tipping points and professor of climate science at Exeter university, noted the study had \u201cmade important improvements to the methods of providing early warning of a climate tipping point directly from data\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOnce past the tipping point, the collapse of the Amoc would be irreversible,\u201d Lenton said. \u201cThe collapse and its impacts will take time to unfold, but how long is uncertain,\u201d he added. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other climate scientists were more doubtful about the data and analytical methods used by the Copenhagen researchers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt is an interesting paper and emphasises Amoc collapse as a reason for concern,\u201d said Richard Wood, head of the climate and oceans group at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. \u201cBut I\u2019m not abandoning the IPCC view, expressed with medium confidence, that it won\u2019t collapse this century, though we do expect a weakening of the Amoc.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geological evidence suggests that during the last ice ages drastic changes in Atlantic circulation took place within a decade or two, but some climate models predict that it might take a century or so for the Amoc to halt completely under 21st-century circumstances. Even a partial shutdown would exacerbate the disruption caused by global warming. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other worrying manifestations of global warming in the oceans include exceptionally high sea surface temperatures now being recorded around temperate regions of the northern hemisphere \u2014 as much as 5C above average off the east coast of Canada \u2014 while sea ice around Antarctica is at an all-time winter low. These are not directly related to changes in the Amoc. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Ditlevsens \u2014 a brother and sister research partnership \u2014 said their results added to the urgency of global action to cut greenhouse gases. But Susanne Ditlevsen was not optimistic about the chances of avoiding an Amoc collapse. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFrom what I see in the data it doesn\u2019t look as though we can reverse it, unless there is a huge change in political views everywhere in the world, including China and the United States,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Source: ft.com Shutdown of ocean flows would likely lead to more stormy winters and drier summers in Europe Other signs of global warming include high sea surface temperatures in temperate regions of the northern hemisphere, while sea ice around Antarctica is at an all-time low \u00a9 Henrik Egede-Lassen The ocean circulation in the north Atlantic … Continue reading Global warming threatens collapse of Atlantic currents this century, new study finds<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[14],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/brucesheb.familyds.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/brucesheb.familyds.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/brucesheb.familyds.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/brucesheb.familyds.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/brucesheb.familyds.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=340"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/brucesheb.familyds.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":341,"href":"https:\/\/brucesheb.familyds.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340\/revisions\/341"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/brucesheb.familyds.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=340"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/brucesheb.familyds.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=340"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/brucesheb.familyds.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=340"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}